A week has passed, and the news about the flu is both reassuring and worrisome. The H1N1 virus appears to be no worse than any other seasonal flu, so the fears about a new "super-flu" have receded. It does not appear that we are back in 1918, when millions worldwide died of a new type of influenza.
However, there are as of today (May 10, 2009) 2254 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu in the United States, and the death toll in Mexico has been raised to 48, according to Reuters. That fits with the toll from a seasonal flu, but if this had been a "super-flu," then mortality would no doubt have been much higher. And with this being a new type of flu, it is a trial run for the real thing if (when) it comes along.
Most authorities think that we are overdue for a severe form of flu, by about 20-30 years. The appearance of severe pandemics of influenza has followed a pattern of one about every 30 years, and our last extreme flu was in 1968, when the Hong Kong flu took 70,000 lives in the U. S. Even that epidemic was not as severe as some others, including the Asian flu in the 1957-8. Much of the decrease in severity may be the result of better medical care, better sanitation, and immunization.
One wag on the radio said that there was concern about the swine flu combining with avian flu, such that pigs would indeed fly....
So, if you think you've got the flu, stay home. Watch daytime TV. That alone will be enough to make you love your job when you return to it.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Swine Flu Notes
As you might expect, I've been following the news about the swine flu closely. Here's my take on it: What I hear is 10% fact and 90% hysteria. The H1N1 virus is a new strain of flu, and that is pretty scary. We haven't had a completely new type of influenza that is transmissable between humans for many years. If this one turns out to be an extremely severe form of flu, it could be devastating worldwide. It does seem to be spreading rapidly from state to state and country to country. And influenza kills about 30,000 people in the United States every year, even without a new strain of the virus.
However, the hysterical ramblings of poorly-informed journalists may actually do more harm than good. It appears now that the deaths from swine flu in Mexico total about 7, not 150 as originally reported. Closing most public places, as they have done in Mexico, is certainly an over-reaction. Closing schools where cases have occurred, especially elementary schools, may be reasonable. It's hard to get third-graders to wash their hands every time they touch their noses or cough. But let's get real--This is a virus, not a magical curse. If you are reasonably careful, you are unlikely to either acquire or spread this illness.
As far as vaccines, I do not expect a vaccine before fall. Given the disastrous experience in our nation with the last swine flu scare, I hope that our government will take measured, careful steps that follow the same protocols used for flu vaccines now. During the Ford administration, the federal government caused production of a vaccine that was not fully tested, and the result was a seven-fold increase in neurologic complications (Guillain-Barre Syndrome) for a flu that turned out to be a minor problem. In other words, they over-reacted to a virus that never became a pandemic.
I must say, I never expected to hear the President of the United States to be telling people to wash their hands....
However, the hysterical ramblings of poorly-informed journalists may actually do more harm than good. It appears now that the deaths from swine flu in Mexico total about 7, not 150 as originally reported. Closing most public places, as they have done in Mexico, is certainly an over-reaction. Closing schools where cases have occurred, especially elementary schools, may be reasonable. It's hard to get third-graders to wash their hands every time they touch their noses or cough. But let's get real--This is a virus, not a magical curse. If you are reasonably careful, you are unlikely to either acquire or spread this illness.
As far as vaccines, I do not expect a vaccine before fall. Given the disastrous experience in our nation with the last swine flu scare, I hope that our government will take measured, careful steps that follow the same protocols used for flu vaccines now. During the Ford administration, the federal government caused production of a vaccine that was not fully tested, and the result was a seven-fold increase in neurologic complications (Guillain-Barre Syndrome) for a flu that turned out to be a minor problem. In other words, they over-reacted to a virus that never became a pandemic.
I must say, I never expected to hear the President of the United States to be telling people to wash their hands....
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Joining the blogging universe
Becoming part of the blogosphere has been a daunting prospect for me. I don't want to be a boor, or a pedant, too silly or too serious, too personal or too generic, too transparent or too obtuse. But I'm getting too old and cranky to care all that much about others' opinions of me, so I guess I'll just say what I want to say and if you don't like it, you can argue with me or go fly a kite. Come to think of it, flying a kite sounds really fun right now.
I'm intending to include some medical information, largely my opinions on medical topics that may be in the news. I may get onto politics occasionally, as that field impinges on medical matters. I'll probably deflate "alternative medicine" regularly and with feeling. I view "alternative medicine" as an oxymoron, since most of the practices are decidedly nonscientific and anti-medicine.
If you want to comment, please feel free to do so, and I welcome agreement and disagreement alike. If I'm wrong, prove it to me. If you agree with me, tell me why and how it matters to you. Most of all, I hope this will be a fun outlet, and that maybe it will enlighten you, or at least make you think.
I'm intending to include some medical information, largely my opinions on medical topics that may be in the news. I may get onto politics occasionally, as that field impinges on medical matters. I'll probably deflate "alternative medicine" regularly and with feeling. I view "alternative medicine" as an oxymoron, since most of the practices are decidedly nonscientific and anti-medicine.
If you want to comment, please feel free to do so, and I welcome agreement and disagreement alike. If I'm wrong, prove it to me. If you agree with me, tell me why and how it matters to you. Most of all, I hope this will be a fun outlet, and that maybe it will enlighten you, or at least make you think.
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