Swine Flu Notes

As you might expect, I've been following the news about the swine flu closely. Here's my take on it: What I hear is 10% fact and 90% hysteria. The H1N1 virus is a new strain of flu, and that is pretty scary. We haven't had a completely new type of influenza that is transmissable between humans for many years. If this one turns out to be an extremely severe form of flu, it could be devastating worldwide. It does seem to be spreading rapidly from state to state and country to country. And influenza kills about 30,000 people in the United States every year, even without a new strain of the virus.

However, the hysterical ramblings of poorly-informed journalists may actually do more harm than good. It appears now that the deaths from swine flu in Mexico total about 7, not 150 as originally reported. Closing most public places, as they have done in Mexico, is certainly an over-reaction. Closing schools where cases have occurred, especially elementary schools, may be reasonable. It's hard to get third-graders to wash their hands every time they touch their noses or cough. But let's get real--This is a virus, not a magical curse. If you are reasonably careful, you are unlikely to either acquire or spread this illness.

As far as vaccines, I do not expect a vaccine before fall. Given the disastrous experience in our nation with the last swine flu scare, I hope that our government will take measured, careful steps that follow the same protocols used for flu vaccines now. During the Ford administration, the federal government caused production of a vaccine that was not fully tested, and the result was a seven-fold increase in neurologic complications (Guillain-Barre Syndrome) for a flu that turned out to be a minor problem. In other words, they over-reacted to a virus that never became a pandemic.

I must say, I never expected to hear the President of the United States to be telling people to wash their hands....